Yes, but it’s a tentative “yes” and the answer has several qualifications and so it’s premature to celebrate what appears to be the end of the downturn.

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Steroid hailed as ‘breakthrough’ for saving lives among Covid-19 patients: CNBC
US targets seven COVID-19 vaccine candidates for financial support: Reuters
Six US states report record high coronavirus infections: Reuters
Pentagon: China exploiting coronavirus to wage ‘economic warfare’ on US: CNN
India reports 20 soldiers dead in border clash with China: BBC
China shifts to emergency footing amid coronavirus resurgence in Beijing: UST
Fed Chairman Powell says US economy may be at risk for long-term damage: WSJ
US homebuilder sentiment surges in June–biggest improvement on record: CNBC
US industrial production rose 1.4% in May–first gain in three months: MW
US retail sales rebounded sharply in May–biggest monthly gain on record: CNBC

For much of the year so far, Chinese shares have held the lead for stock market returns, albeit by losing less than the other major equity regions, based on a set of US-listed publicly traded funds. For a brief period in late-May the leadership shifted to American stocks, but in recent days Chinese stocks are again leading as of trading through Monday, June 15.

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Trump administration reportedly preparing $1 trillion infrastructure stimulus: BBG
Supreme Court rules LGBTQ discrimination illegal in workplace: CNN
N. Korea destroys liaison office used to improve relations with South: Reuters
India-China border tensions rise after 3 Indian soldiers die in clash: NYT
Global credit markets rally after Fed says it will buy individual corporates: BBG
IEA expects largest-ever drop in oil demand before rebounding: CNBC
Dallas Fed president sees US economic rebound in second half of 2020: WSJ
UK jobless claims nearly double from coronavirus lockdown: BBG
German investor sentiment increased more than expected in June: Reuters
US retail sales expected to rebound in today’s update for May: Reuters
NY Fed Mfg Index rebounds in June, hinting at economic recovery potential: NYFed

Government bonds in foreign developed markets extended a rally last week as risk-off sentiment revived. This slice of global fixed-income posted the strongest performance for the major asset classes over the trading week through Friday, June 12, based on a set of exchange-traded funds.

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Sec of State Pompeo plans to meet Chinese officials in Hawii this week: CNN
US stock futures down sharply in early Monday trading: CNBC
China reports Covid-19 cases have rebounded to 2-month high: Vox
Ex-US marine Paul Whelan sentenced to 16 years in Russia: BBC
Has a second wave of US Covid-19 infections begun? CNBC
Breaking from reliance on Chinese imports is tough for the global economy: NYT
Morgan Stanley economists: global economy will rebound by Q4: Bloomberg
Recession isn’t stopping big tech from making new investments for growth: NYT
US Consumer Sentiment Index continues to rebound in June: UoM

● The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People’s Economy
Stephanie Kelton
Review via San Antonio Express-News
We live in extraordinary times. Revolutionary times. The upstarts, originally marginalized and dismissed as irresponsible, suddenly see their radical ideas embraced. The holders of power shift, first imperceptibly and then all at once, to the side of the revolutionaries in the streets.
I refer, of course, to the takeover of the Washington establishment and consensus by adherents of the Modern Monetary Theory, aka MMT, of economics.
A quick refresher: MMT begins with the principle that governments that control and create their own currency, like the United States, never have to worry about defaulting on excessive government debt. Taxes do not have to match spending now. Or ever. Borrowing and money creation can always fill the gap between spending and taxation.
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Breaking Bad Trends
Ashish Garg (Research Affiliates), et al.
May 7, 2020
We document and quantify the negative impact of trend breaks (i.e., turning points in the trajectory of asset prices) on the performance of standard trend-following strategies across several assets and asset classes. The frequency of trend breaks has increased in recent years, which can help explain the lower performance of monthly trend following in the last decade. We illustrate how to repair trend-following strategies by exploiting the return forecasting properties of the different types of trend breaks: market corrections and rebounds. We construct dynamic multi-asset trend-following portfolios, which harvest more than double the average returns of standard trend-following investing strategies over the last decade.
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Some US states reporting post-Memorial Day Covid-19 surges: WSJ
IMHE’s US model forecasts second-wave risk for Covid-19 in Q4: IMHE
US stock futures rebound in early Friday trading after Thursday’s sharp loss: CNBC
Survey shows most Americans support sweeping police reform proposals: Reuters
N. Korea all but ends diplomacy effort with US with harsh announcement: BBC
Survey: economists expect US economy to start recovering in Q3: WSJ
UK economy contracted by a shockingly steep 20% in April: Bloomberg
Eurozone industrial output down a record 17.1% in April vs. March: Reuters
US jobless claims continued to rise sharply last week: CNBC

If ever there was a case for a fixed-income allocation, 2020 has delivered the goods in no uncertain terms in 2020. As the coronavirus crisis derailed equity markets around the world, bonds – government bonds, in particular – have providing critical support for portfolio strategies. But for US investors, the fixed-income edge has been primarily a domestic phenomenon. Foreign bonds, by contrast, have posted weak gains at best so far this year (through June 11), based on a set of proxy ETFs.

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