Daily Archives: May 7, 2021 at 08:07 pm EDT

Will Treasury Term Premiums Signal Higher Inflation Risk?

There’s no shortage of indicators to monitor for deciding if the expected runup in inflation is a temporary affair or regime shift that signals a longer-term rise in pricing pressure. I recently considered several of the usual suspects, including core inflation and the Treasury market’s implied forecasts, for tracking this risk. But this only scratches the surface of possibilities. Considering options for what might be labeled alternative metrics, the Treasury term premium deserves to be on the short list.

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Macro Briefing: 7 May 2021

* Germany opposes US-backed idea to waive patents on Covid-19 vaccines
* Vaccines show promising results against COVID variants
* India’s main opposition leader warns that India’s Covid wave threatens world
* Biden administration expected to maintain limits on US investments in China
* China’s economic growth accelerated in April–fastest to date in 2021 via PMI data
* China’s exports surged more than expected in April
* Fed warns of risk of ‘significant declines’ in asset prices as valuations climb
* Chinese rocket debris expected to hit Earth this weekend.
* US jobless claims fell below 500k last week–a new pandemic low: