Monthly Archives: August 2021

Macro Briefing: 25 August 2021

* House Democrats break impasse in push to pass $3.5 trillion budget bill
* Supreme Court reinstates Trump-era wait-in-Mexico asylum policy
* China reopens world’s third-busiest port after two-week shutdown
* Extreme heat is expected to be more common, according to climate forecast
* German business confidence slips for second consecutive month in August
* Richmond Fed Mfg Index slips in August but still indicates strong expansion
* New US home sales increased in July after three straight monthly declines:

Macro Briefing: 24 August 2021

* Biden’s economic agenda at risk amid feud among House Democrats
* Emergency meeting of G-7 leaders planned re: chaotic situation in Afghanistan
* Full federal approval of Pfizer’s vaccine triggers new vaccine mandates
* Heat is taking a tool on US crops, pushing up prices
* Chinese ride-hailing giant Didi halts plan in UK and Europe
* Existing home sales increased for second month in July
* US housing market, although strong, is showing signs of starting to cool
* Chicago Fed National Activity Index strengthened in July
* US growth slows in August as Composite PMI drops to 8-month low:

Macro Briefing: 23 August 2021

* Firefight at Kabul airport extends chaos in Afghanistan
* House Dems return from summer recess to advance ambitious domestic agenda
* Fed bond-buying stimulus in focus at this week’s Jackson Hole summit
* Eurozone economic activity is strong in August, near 15-yr high via survey data
* UK economic growth slows to a 6mo low in Aug via PMI survey data
* Computer-ship shortage remains a headwind for the economy
* US and int’l data releases falling short of forecasts at accelerating pace:

Book Bits: 21 August 2021

Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms
Mark Spitznagel
Essay by author via Financial Times
The fact is, safety from risk can be exceedingly costly. As a cure, it is often worse than the disease. And what’s worse, the costs are often hidden; they are errors of omission (the great shots that could have been), even as they mitigate errors of commission (the bad shots). The latter are the errors we easily notice; ignoring the former for the latter is a costly fallacy… More surprising, even investors engage in risk mitigation irony as well. They strive to do something — anything — to mitigate risk, even if it impairs their portfolios and defeats the purpose. The vast majority of presumed risk mitigation strategies leave errors of omission in their wake (ie underperformance), all in the name of avoiding losses from falling markets.

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