Last month’s estimate of “fair value” for the US 10-year Treasury yield suggested that an upside bias for this benchmark rate was likely, or at least plausible. A month later, that outlook turned out to be spot on. Today’s update still suggests that more upside for the 10-year rate is still a reasonable view.

Continue reading →

* House votes to raise the US borrowing limit through December
* IMF cuts US and global economic growth estimates for 2021
* Global supply chain bottlenecks could “get worse before they get better”
* US will open borders with Canada and Mexico to vaccinated travelers
* China’s export growth was surprisingly strong in September
* UK economy continued recovering in August
* Eurozone industrial output fell in August amid supply constraints, slower growth
* US small business sentiment ticked lower in Sep, well below recent peak
* US workers quit their jobs at record pace in August: