Daily Archives: Jun 11, 2022 at 03:42 am EDT

Book Bits: 11 June 2022

Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation
Mark P. Kritzman, et al.
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance. The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability.

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