Daily Archives: Jun 17, 2022 at 07:34 am EDT

Recession Watch: 17 June 2022

The outlook is turning grim for the US economy, or so a range of soft data and forecasts advise. But while expectations are deteriorating at the moment, the hard data continues to reflect a growth bias. Short of an epic, sudden (and at this point unexpected) collapse in business activity and/or consumer spending, the US economy will continue to expand for the near term. What happens beyond the next several months is unclear, which is par for the course. The crowd, however, is becoming increasingly pessimistic, which raises the question: Will the next recession become a self-fulfilling prophecy?

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Macro Briefing: 17 June 2022

* Putin continues to wield Russia’s energy weapon with a deft hand
* China launches its third, most advanced aircraft carrier
* More than 60% of executives see recession in next 12 to 18 months
* European leaders lay out path to European Union membership for Ukraine
* World Trade Organization changes global trading rules for first time in years
* Cosmetics maker Revlon files for bankruptcy, citing supply-chain disruption
* Philly Fed Mfg Index turns negative in June
* US jobless claims tick lower, but still reflect strong labor market
* US housing starts fall in May to lowest level in more than a year:

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