The US economy remains on track to post a moderate growth rate in the upcoming first-quarter GDP report, but the expansion continues to show signs of slowing.
Monthly Archives: March 2024
Macro Briefing: 22 March 2024
* US govt sues Apple, charging that its iPhone ecosystem is a monopoly
* US Leading Economic Index unexpectedly rises in February
* Jobless claims eased last week, reaffirming strong US labor market
* Philly Fed Index indicates continued expansion in business activity
* PMI Composite Index continues to indicate modest US expansion:
* US existing home sales rise in February to highest level in a year:
Fed Still Expects To Cut Rates Despite Sticky Inflation
The Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for core PCE inflation in 2024 but reaffirmed expectations that interest rates will probably fall by the end of the year. Despite the apparent conflict, the market quickly jumped on the bandwagon by bidding up bond prices (and lowering yields) and firming up expectations for rate cuts via the implied forecast in Fed funds futures.
Macro Briefing: 21 March 2024
* Fed leaves rates unchanged but expects cuts later this year
* Fed Chairman Powell doesn’t appear worried about recent sticky inflation data
* New CBO estimates still project hefty runup in US debt in years ahead
* Eurozone economy close to stabilizing in March via PMI survey data
* As mortgage rates decline, US housing supply is starting to rebound
* Private equity firm Apollo offers to buy Paramount film and TV studios
* Micron shares soar as AI-driven earnings report impresses investors
* US 10-year Treasury yield continues to ease after Fed leaves rates unchanged:
Profiling A ‘Real Assets’ Portfolio During The Recent Inflation Surge
The sharp runup in US inflation in 2021-2022 revived the idea that a so-called real assets portfolio is crucial for asset allocation strategies. But with the peaking of inflation in mid-2022, the outlook has turned murky for a dedicated focus on assets that are expected to benefit from higher pricing pressure.
Macro Briefing: 20 March 2024
* Federal Reserve expected to leave rates unchanged at today’s policy meeting
* Economists continue ponder why high rates haven’ caused US recession
* US dollar strengthens after Bank of Japan ends policy of negative rates
* Rate cut for Europe on the table for June, says ECB President Lagarde
* UK inflation in February eases to slowest pace in nearly 2-1/2 years
* US housing starts rebounded in February–biggest rise since May:
Expectations For June Rate Cut Continue To Fade
Analysts are debating if last week’s sticky inflation news is the death knell for a June cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This much is clear: the recent run of news isn’t encouraging for anticipating that a dovish turn for monetary policy is imminent.
Macro Briefing: 19 March 2024
* Japan’s central bank lifts interest rates for first time since 2007
* Federal court temporarily halts SEC’s new climate-disclosure rules
* Nvidia announces new generation of artificial intelligence chips
* Google and Apple reportedly discussing use of Gemini’s generative AI in iPhones
* US homebuilder sentiment rises to 8-month high in March:
Commodities Overtake US Stocks As Performance Leader In 2024
It had to end eventually. Whether last week’s shift in the pole position endures is something else entirely. But for the moment, US equities are no longer leading the horse race for the major asset classes year to date, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (Mar. 15).
Macro Briefing: 18 March 2024
* Fed will to keep rates higher for longer, economists advise in poll, but…
* BIS chief predicts rate cuts are still likely this year
* Another potential partial-government shutdown lurks, again, on Friday
* China reports firmer economic data in retail and industrial sectors, but…
* The ailing property market in China shows is still struggling
* Working in old age isn’t as effective as it seems for the retirement crisis
* US retail spending leveling off as consumers pull back:
