● Fixed: Why Personal Finance Is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone
John Y. Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai
Summary via publisher (Princeton U. Press)
We interact with the financial system every day, whether taking out or paying off loans, making insurance claims, or simply depositing money into our bank accounts. Fixed exposes how this system has been corrupted to serve the interests of financial services providers and their cleverest customers—at the expense of ordinary people. John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai diagnose the ills of today’s personal finance markets in the United States and across the globe, looking at everything from short-term saving and borrowing to loans for education and housing, financial products for retirement, and insurance. They show how the system is “fixed” to benefit those who are wealthy and more educated while encouraging financial mistakes by those who are aren’t, making it difficult for regular consumers to make sound financial decisions and disadvantaging them in some of the most consequential economic transactions of their lives.
Monthly Archives: October 2025
Research Review | 24 October 2025 | Risk Analysis
The case for low-risk equity investing: evidence from 2011-2025
Raul Leote de Carvalho (BNP Paribas), et al.
July 2025
This paper investigates the performance of equity low-risk strategies since 2011, highlighting their ability to deliver strong risk-adjusted returns across diverse market conditions. We introduce a composite risk score that extends beyond volatility and demonstrate its effectiveness through empirical analysis. The study compares portfolio constructions, examines sector-level effects, and evaluates exposures to Fama-French factors. Results confirm the persistence of the low-risk anomaly and the presence of alpha unexplained by traditional risk premia, supporting the case for including low-risk strategies in long-term equity portfolios.
Macro Briefing: 24 October 2025
Existing-home sales increased by 1.5% month-over-month in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. “As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun. “Improving housing affordability is also contributing to the increase in sales.” Mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest level in a year, below 6.2%.
US Q3 GDP Appears To Remain On Growth Track
The third-quarter GDP report, scheduled for release on Oct. 30, will almost certainly be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown. Meanwhile, the latest nowcasts still point to a moderate pace of economic activity, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. But with each day that key government economic reports are postponed, the reliability of Q3 GDP nowcasting becomes more uncertain.
Macro Briefing: 23 October 2025
Business inflation expectations were steady in October, reports the Atlanta Fed. Year-ahead inflation expectations at firms surveyed by the regional Fed bank remained relatively unchanged at 2.3%, on average.
Will Friday’s CPI Release Clarify Or Blur The Inflation Outlook?
Judging by the Treasury market, the delayed September update on consumer inflation due on Friday will keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again next week.
Macro Briefing: 22 October 2025
The US 10-year Treasury yield is testing its lowest level since the tariff tantrum in April. The benchmark rate closed down on Tuesday, settling at 3.97%.
Risk-On Sentiment Persists For Global Strategies
Despite worrisome headlines, high valuations in some markets, and elevated policy uncertainty, the appetite for risk remains strong, according to a set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Oct. 20).
Macro Briefing: 21 October 2025
The US and Australia signed a deal on critical minerals for projects worth up to $8.5 billion. The deal is expected to help the US reduce its dependence on China, which dominates the global rare earth supply chain. An ETF that targets these commodities is trading near a 1-1/2 year high:
Will Friday’s Delayed CPI Report Derail The Fed’s Rate Cut Plans?
Markets continue to price in high odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next week. The question for Wall Street: Will the delayed consumer inflation report, scheduled for Friday (Oct. 24), play along?