It was starting to look like market sentiment was immune to the news flow. But all it took was one social media comment by President Trump on Friday to remind the crowd that risk and uncertainty were still lurking below the surface, waiting for someone or something to revive fear and panic.
Monthly Archives: October 2025
Macro Briefing: 13 October 2025
The US breakeven employment level — the number of jobs required each month to keep the labor market in balance — has declined after immigration changes, estimates a researcher at the Dallas Fed: “A new, high-frequency estimate of break-even employment shows a dramatic reversal in immigration flows, combined with cyclical shifts in labor force participation, has caused the monthly break-even requirement to collapse from a peak of approximately 250,000 in 2023 to about 30,000 in mid-2025.”
Book Bits: 11 October 2025
● The Art of Spending Money: Simple Choices for a Richer Life
Morgan Housel
Q&A with author via Kiplinger
Q: The title of your new book is The Art of Spending Money. How is spending money an art?
A: It’s an art because it’s not a science. I wish I could say, here’s how everybody should spend, but I don’t think a formula for how everyone should spend exists. The spending that works for me and makes me happy might be wrong for you, and vice versa. Some people might find that disappointing, that I’m basically giving an overview of the psychology of spending money. But you have to figure it out for yourself, because I don’t know you or your life experiences. I’m still trying to figure all this out for myself, too.
GDP Nowcasts Still Indicate Moderate US Growth For Q3
The government shutdown is delaying economic reports, but the latest numbers available continue to indicate a solid increase in the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The longer the shutdown lasts, however, the greater the uncertainty as the nowcast inputs age and fail to reflect the latest economic changes.
Macro Briefing: 10 October 2025
A third of US state economies are contracting and another 13 are “treading water,” according to analysis from Moody’s Analytics. Two of the states with the biggest influence on US GDP — California and New York — appear to be at the tipping point. “Those two states are treading water. They’re big states, and if they go into the red then that’ll probably take the national economy with them into recession,” predicts Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi.
Micro-Cap Stocks Are Outperforming This Year
Much of the attention on this year’s bull run in stocks has focused on AI-fueled Big Tech and its rising influence in benchmarks such as the S&P 500 Index. But while Wall Street remains obsessed with the largest companies, the smallest slice of the market-cap pie has quietly pulled ahead of the pack in recent weeks.
Macro Briefing: 9 October 2025
Federal Reserve officials are leaning toward additional interest-rate cuts this year, according to Fed minutes for latest policy meeting. The reasoning: weakness in the labor market. “In considering the outlook for monetary policy, almost all participants noted that, with the reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, the Committee was well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments,” the minutes stated. Meanwhile, the policy-sensitive US 2-year Treasury yield continues to trade near its low for the year to date.
Red Ink In A Green Year: 2025’s ETF Underdogs
The year to date has been notable for a broad rally that’s lifted all the major asset classes, but it’s not hard to find a wide array of losers when you look below the surface. As a result, contrarians and deep-value investors can easily find opportunities in the search for battered assets, based on a select review of ETFs through Tuesday’s closing prices (Oct. 7).
Macro Briefing: 8 October 2025
Global trade expected to rise more than previously expected in 2025, but next year’s volume is projected to slow to a lackluster 0.8% increase, according to the World Trade Organization. “Trade growth will likely slow in 2026 as the impact of the cooling global economy and new tariffs set in,” the group predicts.
Tech Stocks Still Lead Equity Sectors This Year
The dominance of the technology sector is old news for the stock market, but it’s no less potent at the start of the fourth quarter. A set of ETFs continues to highlight that the biggest tech firms are still leading the market, based on trading through Monday’s close (Oct. 6).