Gold rallies to yet another record high at a time of growing uncertainty on multiple fronts. “Strong ETF demand remains key, driven by ‘FOMO’ and eroding trust in traditional safe havens,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, adding that central bank demand and lower bond yield are also factors.
The US government shut down last week, and markets barely noticed. If the closing of federal agencies, which is delaying key economic reports, is a risk factor, it’s not obvious on Wall Street. All the major asset classes continued to rally through for the trading week through Friday, Oct. 3, based on a set of ETFs.
The US services sector stalled in September, downshifting to the weakest pace since 2020 via the survey-based ISM Services Index. The index dropped to a neutral 50 reading. The employment component of the ISM services gauge shows shows the number of workers in the sector contracting for fourth straight month.
● The Mismeasurement of America: How Outdated Government Statistics Mask the Economic Struggle of Everyday Americans
Gene Ludwig
Review by Jared Bernstein via Washington Monthly
This duality between the data and how people experience the economy is the subject of The Mismeasurement of America, by Gene Ludwig, a former comptroller of the currency during the Clinton administration. Focusing on unemployment, wages, inflation, and the growing economic distance between Americans at the top and the bottom of the income scale, Ludwig argues that the problem is that the numbers I was touting were, if not quite wrong, then “profoundly misleading.” He then develops his own set of numbers, which he argues better explain why people have long felt a lot worse about the economy than you’d glean from the government’s top-line statistics. [Bernstein is the former chairman of the United States Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden.]
Welcome to day 2 of the federal government shutdown, which means that today’s scheduled non-farm payrolls report for September will be postponed until the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopens. The timing for a data blackout is especially problematic because uncertainty is increasing about the economy. The already-challenging environment for setting monetary policy, due to the still-evolving impact from tariffs, is making the Federal Reserve’s job even harder, a scenario that lifts the possibility of a policy mistake. In the current climate, published data from private sources and Federal Reserve banks, which are still operating, are increasingly valuable. Here’s a quick look at some key economic updates published so far this week as the data void for official reports continues.
Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020. “Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm.
The Global Market Index (GMI) is expected to earn a 7%-plus annualized total return in today’s update for the long-run outlook, based on data through September. The estimate is unchanged from the previous month’s analysis.
US companies reduced payrolls for a second straight month in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. The data offers a n ew warning sign for the labor market outlook. “Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month’s release further validates what we’ve been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring,” said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson.
All the major asset classes posted gains in September, extending a broad-based rally in recent history. The year-to-date results also reflect across-the-board wins, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
The Federal government shut down for the first time since 2019. The odds still look low for a political compromise in Congress and so it’s unclear how long the shutdown will last. The Senate is expected to vote again today, likely on the same two measures that failed Tuesday. The betting market Kalshi is currently pricing in 79% odds that the shut down will last more than 5 day.
