Few assets confuse and confound the average investor as much as gold. But there’s an easy solution for cutting through the noise and thinking rationally about how the metal can fit into a broader asset allocation strategy: It’s money and should be treated as such.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 8 September 2023
* Biden’s options limited for preventing possible strike by auto workers
* Biden arrives at G20 meeting in India today–closer US-India ties on agenda
* The record-long slide in 1yr US home prices may be over
* Small- and mid-size business optimism rises to 21-Year High
* US banking industry “continues to face significant downside risks”: FDIC chair
* China’s currency falls to 16-year low vs. the US dollar
* Solar installations in US expected to reach record level this year
* US jobless claims fell to 7-month low last week:
US Median Nowcast For Q3 GDP Edges Up To +2.9%
Stronger headwinds may be brewing for the US economic outlook, but next month’s third-quarter GDP report looks set to post a moderately firmer growth rate, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 7 September 2023
* Tropical Storm Lee in Atlantic strengthens into a hurricane
* White House cancels remaining oil and gas leases in Alaska’s Arctic Refuge
* US inflation, wage growth expected to slow later this year: Fed Beige Book
* China exports fall again in August amid slump in trade activity
* US Service PMI in August shows weakest growth in 7 months, but…
* ISM Services Index reports faster growth–strongest reading in 6 months:
Is It Risk-Off Yet? Price Trends Still Leave Room For Debate
Financial markets have had a bumpy ride lately, inspiring fresh concerns that this year’s rebound from 2022’s sharp loss has run its course. It’s premature to dismiss that possibility, but a review of several sets of ETF pairs for markets still leave room for debate, based on prices through yesterday’s close (Sep. 5).
Macro Briefing: 6 September 2023
* Federal Reserve expected raise its US economic forecast this month
* Saudi Arabia extends oil output cut through end of the year
* China economic slowdown is a “top risk” for US, advise EY economists
* China bans iPhones and other foreign devices from use in government offices
* US consumer spending will slow but remain solid, predicts Goldman Sachs
* US factory orders fell sharply in July, first monthly decline since February:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 5 September 2023
The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up in August from the previous month. Today’s revised long-run forecast for this benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies — edged up to an annualized 6.6% return, the highest so far in 2023.
Macro Briefing: 5 September 2023
* Will a strong job market immunize the US from recession? Maybe not
* China Composite PMI, a GDP proxy, indicates Aug growth slowest since Jan
* China’s Country Garden, a property developer, avoids default–again
* Eurozone economy contracts at faster pace in August via PMI survey data
* Modest global mfg contraction continued in August via PMI survey data
* US manufacturing activity contracted for 10th straight month in August
* US payrolls rose more than forecast in August
* Economists expect US economic growth will slow in 2024:
Labor Day Weekend 2023
The Capital Spectator never argues with long holiday weekends, and this Labor Day is no exception. The wheels for the machinery start turning again on Tuesday, Sep. 5. Meanwhile, Sophocles comes to mind: “Without labor nothing prospers.”
Major Asset Classes | August 2023 | Performance Review
Cash led the performance race in August for the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. In fact, most markets posted losses last month. The handful of winners, in addition to cash: a broad measure of commodities and US junk bonds.