The facts on the ground look ominous. Russia has deployed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. The US, Europe and NATO have responded by warning Moscow that there will be a price to pay if President Vladimir Putin decides to invade. The situation has become a major risk factor for the global economy, financial markets and beyond,

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* US working to supply Europe with energy supplies to blunt a Russian gas cutoff
* New omicron variant discovered and it’s spreading fast but little is known of risks
* Fed expected to signal a March interest rate hike today
* Gold is rising this year amid increased geopolitical tensions and market turmoil
* IMF says global recovery is ‘disrupted’ and cuts global growth forecast
* Falling stock prices may not delay the Fed’s hawkish policy choices this time
* US computer chip supplies near extreme lows
* US Consumer Confidence Index fell in January after gains in 2021’s Q4
* US home prices ease on year-over-year basis but still running hot:

Economic growth is expected to accelerate in this week’s initial estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP). The Bureau of Economic Analysis appears set to report a strong rebound in output for Q4 in Thursday’s release (Jan. 27). But the recovery will be short-lived, based on recent downgrades for the US outlook in early 2022.

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* US puts 8500 troops on alert for possible deployment to Eastern Europe
* Europe considers the risk of Russia cutting off gas supplies
* China breaches Taiwan airspace with dozens of warplanes
* Does China’s zero-Covid policy put it at disadvantage to the West
* Is the Fed’s current pivot to tighter policy too little too late?
* Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US growth slowed to 11-month low in December
* US economic growth slows to a crawl in January via PMI survey data:

A broad measure of commodities rose for a third straight week as stocks around the world tumbled in trading through Friday’s close (Jan. 21), based on a set of ETFs tracking the major asset classes.

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* Ukraine receives second weapons shipment from US amid Russia threat
* US considers moving troops to Eastern Europe and Baltics to counter Russia
* US and UK withdrawing staff from Ukraine embassies
* US food supply under pressure as Omicron exacerbates worker shortages
* Eurozone growth slows to an 11-month low in January via PMI survey data
* German economy shows resilience in January despite weaker Eurozone trend
* The Fed may be forced to hike rates four times this year, Goldman Sachs advises
* US Treasury market inflation forecasts remain below recent peaks:

● Transparent Investing: How to Play the Stock Market without Getting Played
Patrick Geddes
Interview with author via CNBC
“Learning about how your brain is wired and how your emotions drive your investing can actually be even more important than analysis,” Geddes explains.
Sometimes, these emotions get the best of us. He calls this concept of making emotion-based investment decisions the “illusion of control.”
“As investors, we imagine a kind of control over outcomes that doesn’t match the unwelcome reality that stocks behave pretty randomly,” says Geddes, who is the co-founder of investment management firm Aperio Group and former research director at Morningstar.

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• Sharp losses this week bring most markets into the red for year-to-date results
• A rough week for all our portfolio strategy benchmarks

Widespread losses… with a few places to hide: Risk assets took a hit this week, or at least most did. But some corners of the global market were havens.

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The US stock market is knee-deep in another one of its periodic bouts of selling. Is this the big one or just another short-term correction? The only honest answer, as always: unclear. But whenever the market dives it’s useful to refresh our perspective on how the slide stacks up vs. history. This is no panacea or crystal ball, but developing context for a real-time event is preferable to allowing extremist narratives du jour dominate your thinking.

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* US and Russia meeting in Geneva amid rising fears of Ukraine invasion
* Fed releases study on possibility of rolling out a digital dollar
* Citi expects genuine supply-chain gains no earlier than late-2022
* Pandemic pessimism rising among Americans, Gallup survey shows
* Antitrust tech-sector bill advances in Senate Judiciary Committee
* Intel will invest $20 billion in new chip-making plant in Ohio
* Netflix stock tumbles on forecast of slower subscriber growth
* Philly Fed Mfg Index reflects stronger business activity in January
* US Existing home sales fell in December amid higer prices and low inventory
* US jobless claims increased to a three-month high last week: