US economic activity is still on track to slow after strong growth in the third quarter, but recession risk remains low, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
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Macro Briefing: 15 December 2023
* Six rate cuts expected for 2024, predicts Morningstar economist
* China industrial output and retail sales rose in November, but…
* China economic activity still appears to be slowing
* Eurozone business activity contracts at faster rate in December
* AI is threat to financial system, US regulators warn
* US jobless claims drop to 8-week low, suggesting labor market remains strong
* US retail sales rebound in November, beating expectations:
Risk-On Signal For Global Markets Strengthens After Fed News
A month ago the trend in global markets remained bullish despite the fallout from a correction that started mid-summer, based on several sets of ETF pairs. Following yesterday’s upbeat Federal Reserve news, however, the upbeat outlook has strengthened.
Macro Briefing: 14 December 2023
* Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, hints at cuts in 2024
* Fed trims core inflation forecast to 2.4% for 2024
* Record debt and high interest rates threaten global economy: World Bank
* Global oil demand has been slowing “drastically”, says IEA
* US wholesale prices flatline in November, pointing to softer inflation
* Business inflation expectations relatively unchanged at 2.4%: Atlanta Fed
* Federal Reserve expects rate cuts in 2024:
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 13 December 2023
Today’s update of the “fair-value” model for the US 10-year Treasury yield reaffirms that the benchmark rate appears unusually high relative to the economic fundamentals. Although that condition has prevailed for some time, the recent slide in the 10-year yield suggests market conditions are starting to normalize the gap, albeit on the margins.
Macro Briefing: 13 December 2023
* Fed set to leave rates unchanged for third time in today’s policy meeting
* COP28 climate summit calls for ‘beginning of the end’ for fossil fuels
* Treasury Sec. Yellen says US economy on Path to soft landing
* China says it will boost demand to promote 2024 recovery
* Ford will cut output of electric pickup truck in half due to weak demand
* The business opportunities in oil still far exceed investing in renewable energy
* US headline inflation eases in November, but core CPI remains steady:
Tech, Consumer Discretionary Are Top Equity Sectors In 2023
Key drivers of the strong performance for the US stock market this year are technology and consumer discretionary sectors, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Dec. 11). By contrast, health care, consumer staples, energy and utilities are the sector losers in 2023.
Macro Briefing: 12 December 2023
* Geopolitical risk is top threat for 2024: survey of institutional investors
* World economy may be entering ‘a second cold war’, warns IMF official
* US consumer inflation expectations fall to 2-year low: NY Fed survey
* Goldman Sachs now expects Fed rate cuts by Q3:2024
* The idea of government-backed digital currencies faces rising skepticism
* Jury decides Google has illegal monopoly in app store
* S&P 500 closes decisively above the summer high. Next hurdle is a record high:
All Major Asset Classes (Except Commodities) Set For 2023 Gains
With just three weeks left to the year, nearly all corners of global markets are on track to post gains for 2023, based on a set of index ETFs. The US stock market is still leading the field by a wide margin. Meanwhile, commodities are the downside outlier.
Macro Briefing: 11 December 2023
* No change in rates expected for Wednesday’s Fed meeting, but…
* Central bank’s comments on possible future actions will be in focus
* OPEC losing control of oil market as US production offsets cuts
* China’s deflation is deepening as consumer prices fall at fastest rate in 3 years
* FDA approves gene-editing therapy for sickle cell disease
* US Consumer Sentiment Index rebounds in Dec, reversing recent declines:
