* Biden signs debt ceiling bill into law and averts US default
* Fitch may downgrade US credit rating despite debt-ceiling resolution
* Wave of new US Treasuries sales will be stress test for liquidity
* “We don’t yet see a significant slowdown in lending,” says IMF chief
* Expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2023 fade as economy stays resilient
* OPEC+ will extend oil production cuts to support crude’s price
* US employment surged in May–largest monthly gain since January
* Small-cap stocks may shine if US recession risk fades
* US stock market (S&P 500) rallied to 9-month high on Friday:
Book Bits: 3 June 2023
● Life after Capitalism: The Meaning of Wealth, the Future of the Economy, and the Time Theory of Money
George Gilder
Review via RealClearMarkets.com
Though Gilder penned what many view as the underlying philosophy of supply-side economics with the brilliant Wealth and Poverty in 1981, in his spectacular 2013 book Knowledge and Power Gilder began to question the “incentive” economics that at least on the surface informs supply-side.
To Gilder, wealth is the creation of information, and individual tax rates arguably aren’t as relevant there, particularly in technology. We’re talking about people obsessed with inventing the future. The latter tells us they too aren’t checking individual tax rates ahead of time before deciding whether to work at the Post Office or start a new business. About the Post Office, a card-carrying, well-regarded and well-published supply sider once literally told me that high tax rates would cause our greatest entrepreneurs to take jobs in the Post Office…About all this, tax rates DO matter. Big time. That supply is the source of all demand is a tautology. But tax rates arguably aren’t the work catalyst for the reasons long expressed by supply siders.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 June 2023
The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up to a 6.0% annualized pace in May, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. The forecast, based on the average estimate for three models (defined below), is near the lower range for realized performance in recent history, based on a rolling 10-year return.
Macro Briefing: 2 June 2023
* Senate passes debt ceiling bill, sending legislation to Biden to avert default
* Global manufacturing output rises in May but new orders continue to fall
* Arizona limits residential construction around Phoenix due to water shortage
* US manufacturing sector continues to contract in May via ISM Mfg Index
* Jobless claims edge up but remain relatively low
* Construction spending in US for April rises well above expections
* US companies hire more workers than expected in May via ADP estimate:
Major Asset Classes | May 2023 | Performance Review
Most of the major asset classes fell in May. The upside exceptions: US stocks and cash. Otherwise, red ink prevailed last month, based on a set of proxy ETFs representing the world’s primary markets.
Macro Briefing: 1 June 2023
* House approves bill to lift debt-ceiling limit, easing default threat
* Senate under pressure to quickly pass debt-ceiling bill
* Eurozone inflation falls more than forecast in May, dropping to 6.1%
* China mfg output growth rises to 11-month high in May via PMI survey
* Eurozone manufacturing recession deepens to six-month low in May
* Fed Beige Book highlights cooling economy
* US births fell slightly in 2022 vs. 2021
* Chicago PMI tumbles in May, reflecting deeper pace of mfg contraction
* US job openings unexpectedly rose in April:
How Long Will US Economic Resilience Last?
The warning signs continue to mount. Yet the US economy continues to defy expectations in some quarters that a recession is near. Granted, it’s arguably a precarious expansion that’s vulnerable on several fronts. But for the moment, in the face of seemingly overwhelming odds, a positive macro trend endures and that looks set to continue.
Macro Briefing: 31 May 2023
* House set to vote on debt-ceiling deal after it clears key committee
* China’s manufacturing sector contracts for second month in May via survey data
* Index funds have become tech-heavy growth funds
* Texas, a leader in wind energy, is turning against its green-energy industry
* Orders continue to slide for Texas manufacturing sector in May
* US home prices rise in March after falling for seven months
* US consumer confidence eases to 6-month low in May:
Debt-Ceiling Deal Faces Several Hurdles In Congress This Week
The agreement announced on Saturday by President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy that outlines a debt-ceiling deal may prove to be the easy part. The struggle to avert a US government default this week now turns to the tricky path of navigating the legislation through both houses of Congress.
Macro Briefing: 30 May 2023
* Biden and McCarthy look for votes to pass debt-ceiling bill
* Debt-ceiling deal, if passed, will be a new headwind for US economy
* Moscow attacked by drones as Russia bombs Ukraine capital for third day
* Nato troops injured in clashes with Serbs in Kosovo
* Biden and newly re-elected Turkish President talk F-16s, Sweden’s NATO bid
* N. Korea says it will launch satellites for real-time monitoring of US and allies
* China’s fading recovery highlights long-building economic risks
* Markets are downgrading expectations that a pause in rate hikes is near
* Small-cap stocks appear to be pricing in a recession: