U.S. economic growth slowed in the first quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. Q1 GDP grew at an annual 2.2% rate in the first three months of 2012, considerably slower than the 3.0% increase in last year’s fourth quarter. The downshift will surely feed worries that the economy is struggling, particularly after the sharp drop in March durable goods orders and the modest upturn in recent weeks in new jobless claims. But today’s GDP report isn’t a smoking gun for arguing that a recession is imminent. Measured on a year-over-year basis, GDP growth accelerated, which suggests that the economy still has enough forward momentum to steer clear of a new downturn for the immediate future.
Three Regional Fed Surveys Report Slower Growth In April
April’s economic activity appears mixed, according to business surveys published by four regional Fed banks. Although all four updates reflect continued growth, three of the four indicate a slower pace of expansion in April vs. March. Only the central Atlantic region via the Richmond Fed indicated faster growth for the month. Here are excerpts from each report:
Has The Labor Market Hit A Wall… Again?
Weekly claims for new unemployment benefits are in a holding pattern these days. But holding for what?
Parsing The Finer Points Of “Reckless” Behavior For Monetary Policy
The word “reckless” is defined as acts that are irresponsible, wild, thoughtless, and the byproduct of someone who is utterly unconcerned about the consequences of some action. And for the record, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke wants you to know that he will tolerate none of those personal failings as a steward of the nation’s monetary policy.
March Durable Goods Orders Drop Sharply
The margin of safety for durable goods orders is wearing thin. This series isn’t forecasting a recession, at least not yet, but it’s now the closest to crossing the line since the U.S. slipped into macro darkness in 2008.
Strategic Briefing | 4.25.12 | A New Recession For Britain
UK slides back into recession
Reuters | April 25
Britain’s economy is in its second recession since the financial crisis, data showed on Wednesday, heaping pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron’s coalition government as it battles a series of political embarrassments. The unexpected contraction in the first three months of 2012 – a 0.2 percent dip in gross domestic product – confounded forecasts for 0.1 percent growth.
What Happened To Peak Oil?
Fears that the world is running short of oil aren’t going away, but judging by the latest figures on global oil production there’s no sign that the peak oil factor is an imminent threat. Global output rose to a new all-time high last December, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): 75.384 million barrels per day, or just ahead of the previous peak of 75.170 million barrels a day in January 2011.
Next Month In Boston: ETFs & Risk Management
I’ll be moderating the 2pm panel at IMN’s 3rd Annual World Series of ETFs & Investment Management conference on May 7 at the Seaport World Trade Center in Boston. The topic under discussion: using ETFs for managing downside risk.
Presidential Politics & The Business Cycle
War and the business cycle are the two primary factors influencing presidential elections. There are other forces, of course, but it’s hard to win if one or both of these big-picture variables are working against you.
Book Bits | 4.21.2012
● Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States
By Michael Lind
Review via History Book Club
This election year offers Americans an unusually clear choice between competing visions of the republic: On the one hand a minimalist government presiding over a lightly-taxed populace left free to succeed (or not) on their own devices; or a more actively engaged government intervening in economic development and social policy to pursue what it perceives as the general welfare. Michal Lind’s splendid new economic history of the United States shows that these two competing visions are almost as old as the republic itself. This is a book that would be welcome anytime, but that is especially timely in the run-up to the 2012 elections. Anyone even slightly acquainted with American history will recognize these as the Jeffersonian and Hamiltonian strains of American public policy. Yet history is full of ironies: Jefferson remains one of the great heroes of the Democratic Party, but the real Jeffersonians of our time are the Tea Party Republicans, while Democrats tend to be Hamiltonian in outlook. The strands of history make a tangled skein. Michael Lind untangles those strands for us in this lucid, fascinating, highly readable book. He presents American economic history as a succession of “republics,” each characterized by its own economic forces and policies, each destabilized by the forces that would create its successor.
