Today’s jobless claims update looks troubling. It’s premature to make definitive claims about what comes next, but the number du jour doesn’t make it easier to maintain the rosy glow that’s defined the macro outlook of late. Here’s the problem: Last week’s sharp rise in new filings for unemployment benefits is the third increase in a row, and the biggest of the three. As a result, claims have jumped to the highest levels since last November, when the blowback from Hurricane Sandy had temporarily elevated new filings. But you can’t blame the weather this time. It’s unclear if the rise in recent weeks is noise, albeit in somewhat more extreme form from what we’ve seen lately, or the start of something darker for the business cycle. But for now, the outlook looks a bit cloudier in the wake of this morning’s update.
Daily Archives: April 4, 2013
US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: March 2013 Preview
Private nonfarm payrolls are expected to post a monthly increase by 160,000 for March in tomorrow’s update from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. The projected gain is sharply lower vs. the reported increase for February and below a pair of consensus forecasts for March.