Today’s update on jobless claims should dampen worries a bit over the outlook for the economy. New filings for unemployment dropped a healthy 16,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 339,000. Once again, claims are moving close to the post-recession low of 330,000 reached back in January—a five year low. One number doesn’t mean much, of course, but today’s report certainly boosts the case for thinking positively when it comes to the labor market. In particular, the data du jour implies that the weak payrolls report for March was a one-off event. We’ll need to see more supporting evidence to embrace that notion with any confidence, of course, but today’s release is a move in the right direction.
Daily Archives: April 25, 2013
Is The Recent Fall In Inflation Expectations A Warning Sign?
Earlier this month I noted that the relationship between US equities and the Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast was looking a bit unusual–unusual by recent standards, that is. Nothing’s changed a few weeks down the line, other than the relationship is a bit more unusual. But keep a close eye on this dance between markets for an early warning sign of trouble. Considering the wobbly economic data of late, including yesterday’s weak report on March durable goods orders, the recent slide in the market’s outlook for inflation isn’t productive at this stage… if it rolls on.