The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline slightly, to +0.03 in the March report, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric forecast. That compares with CFNAI’s +0.09 three-month average for February. A value below -0.70 indicates an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today’s estimates, CFNAI’s three-month average is projected to remain at levels that historically are associated with growth in the update for March, which is scheduled for release on Monday, April 22.
Daily Archives: April 19, 2013
US Economic Profile | 4.19.13
“It’s not the healthiest recovery,” but “we believe that we have avoided the worst, and the economic world no longer looks quite as dangerous as it did,” says the International Monetary Fund’s managing director. That roughly sums up the state of the US economy too, as suggested in today’s update of The Capital Spectator’s Economic Trend Index (ETI) and Economic Momentum Index (EMI). Both indexes, which reflect a diversified set of economic and financial indicators, remain at levels historically associated with economic expansion. In addition, the near-term projection for these indexes also looks encouraging, based on econometric estimates for next several months.