Today’s retail sales report for March looks pretty bad. It may turn out to be a temporary setback due to the cold weather or an early Easter. That’s the optimistic outlook. The alternative view is that today’s weak update on consumption is a sign of deeper trouble for the business cycle in the months ahead. Only time will tell, of course, but for now it’s hard to ignore the number du jour. It’s still premature to assume the worst, but the latest data point hasn’t done us any favors for thinking positively.