Daily Archives: Jul 15, 2021 at 06:07 pm EDT

Modeling US Stock Market Expected Returns, Part I

In recent posts I reviewed several basic applications for generating fair-value estimates for the 10-year Treasury yield, which can be used as a proxy for projecting return. Let’s expand this effort by forecasting performance for the US equity market over a 10-year window. The goal is developing a baseline outlook for a 60/40 US stock/bond portfolio over a 10-year horizon.

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Macro Briefing: 15 July 2021

* Fed Chairman Powell still expects US inflation surge to ease
* China GDP rose less than forecast in Q2 but still strong at +7.9%
* Covid infections rising sharply again in US and Latin America
* US Senate passes bill to ban import of products from China’s Xinjiang region
* Delta Airlines reports first profit since pandemic began
* Low and falling yields haven’t slowed the junk bond market this year
* US factory gate prices surged in June, beating expectations: