Daily Archives: Jul 21, 2021 at 09:45 am EDT

Modeling US Stock Market Expected Returns, Part II

Earlier this month I outlined a model for estimating the US stock market’s return in the decade ahead. The post is part of a larger goal is to develop several models and use the average as more reliable forecast, based on the empirical evidence that combining models tends to generate superior results vs. any one model. In addition, the focus on equities is the counterpart to a previous series on estimating “fair value” for the 10-year Treasury yield.

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Macro Briefing: 21 July 2021

* World in ‘early stages’ of another Covid-19 wave, says WHO chief
* US life expectancy fell 1.5 years in 2020, biggest drop since WWII
* US economy facing stronger headwinds, including “whiff of stagflation”
* US set to drop opposition to Germany-Russia Nord Stream 2 pipeline
* Monthslong slide in bond yields challenges focus on inflation worries
* Senate leader struggles to keep infrastructure spending bill alive
* Covid slowing recovery for many Southeast Asian economies, says analyst
* US housing starts rose more than expected in June but permits fell again: