Monthly Archives: July 2021

Macro Briefing: 27 July 2021

* Tense US-China meeting ends on Monday between high-level officials
* Will the Fed’s light touch with inflation management work?
* US real yields fall to record lows
* Survey data suggest inflation is peaking
* Goldman Sachs cuts US growth outlook for 2H:2021
* Stocks in emerging markets fall into the red for 2021
* S. Korea’s economy expands at fastest pace in a decade in Q2
* Tesla’s quarterly profit surges to record high
* New US home sales continued falling in June; lowest since April 2020:

Macro Briefing: 26 July 2021

* Dr Fauci warns the US going in ‘wrong direction’ again with Covid-19 cases
* Tense start for US-China meeting; Beijing official says relations are in ‘stalemate’
* Taking action on climate change can boost global economy, predicts economist
* Weak US population growth, which may soon go negative, is economic headwind
* Public and bond-market expectations suggest inflation surge is easing
* US real 10-year yield at record low as growth concerns rise
* US labor shortages, inflation pressures expected to continue, NABE survey finds
* Indexing assures top-quartile performance, predicts legendary strategist
* US economic growth eases in July due to services slowdown:

Book Bits: 24 July 2021

The Great Adaptation: Climate, Capitalism and Catastrophe
Romain Felli
Summary via publisher (Verso Books)
The Great Adaptation tells the story of how scientists, governments and corporations have tried to deal with the challenge that climate change poses to capitalism by promoting adaptation to its consequences, rather than combating its causes. Since the 1970s, neoliberal economists and ideologues have used climate change as an argument for creating more “flexibility” in society, for promoting more market-based solutions to environmental and social questions. This book unveils the political economy of this potent movement, showing how some powerful actors are thriving in the face of dangerous climate change and even making a profit out of it.

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Modeling US Stock Market Expected Returns, Part II

Earlier this month I outlined a model for estimating the US stock market’s return in the decade ahead. The post is part of a larger goal is to develop several models and use the average as more reliable forecast, based on the empirical evidence that combining models tends to generate superior results vs. any one model. In addition, the focus on equities is the counterpart to a previous series on estimating “fair value” for the 10-year Treasury yield.

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Macro Briefing: 21 July 2021

* World in ‘early stages’ of another Covid-19 wave, says WHO chief
* US life expectancy fell 1.5 years in 2020, biggest drop since WWII
* US economy facing stronger headwinds, including “whiff of stagflation”
* US set to drop opposition to Germany-Russia Nord Stream 2 pipeline
* Monthslong slide in bond yields challenges focus on inflation worries
* Senate leader struggles to keep infrastructure spending bill alive
* Covid slowing recovery for many Southeast Asian economies, says analyst
* US housing starts rose more than expected in June but permits fell again: