Preference for dividends and stock returns around the world
Allaudeen Hameed (National University of Singapore), et al.
November 2022
We find strong international evidence favoring dividend payout as a salient stock characteristic affecting expected stock returns. We find that dividend-paying stocks outperform non-payers by 0.54% per month in 44 countries, adjusting for exposures to global and regional risk factors. The majority of the dividend premium is earned during the ex-dividend months. The dividend premium is higher following bad market states and co-varies across countries. Dividend payers’ outperformance is stronger in countries with poor governance but is unrelated to local tax rates on dividends. The evidence emphasizes the importance of (time-varying) preference for dividends in driving average stock returns and global return comovement.
Author Archives: James Picerno
Macro Briefing: 9 December 2022
* Inverted yield curves signal high odds of US recession
* US mortgage rates slide for a fourth week
* Turkey blocking halting flow of 600,000 bpd of oil
* China appears to be under-reporting Covid cases and deaths
* China annual inflation drops to 8-month low in November
* US regulators sue to block Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard
* Meta battles US government over $300 million virtual-reality acquisition
* UK will face some of the worst strikes in at least a decade
* US jobless claims rise vs. year-ago level for first time since March 2021:
Introducing The US Inflation Trend Chartbook
Inflation is easing, or so recent data show. The debate is centered on how fast and how far pricing pressure will slide — or if the recent easing is a head fake. In other words, it’s the perfect time to launch a resource that summarizes and updates several of the key inflation indicators that deserve close attention on a monthly basis: The US Inflation Trend Chartbook.
Macro Briefing: 8 December 2022
* Will China’s easing of zero-Covid rules boost its economy?
* The threat of soaring infections lurks as China eases zero-Covid rules
* Chinese exports slide at steepest rate in more than two years
* Attacks on US electricity grid are rising
* German police arrest 25 suspects in plot to overthrow government
* US housing market is in recession, according to market data
* US home prices set to fall in 2023–first annual drop in a decade, Redfin predicts
* US consumer credit continues rising at solid pace in October
* Stocks tend to rise after the end of Fed rate-hiking cycles:
Don’t Underestimate Inflation Threat To Fed’s Credibility
Inflation appears to be rolling over and markets are starting to consider the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy will soon start to ease. But the critical question of how quickly inflation pressure softens leaves more than a trivial amount of uncertainty to ponder.
Macro Briefing: 7 December 2022
* Warnock defeats Walker, giving Dems 51-49 majority in Senate
* China is dismantling its zero-Covid policy
* Will Biden’s green agenda start a new trade war?
* US vows to ramp up natural gas supplies to Britain
* Can Germany avoid recession with a resilient industrial sector?
* Taiwan’s computer chip giant TSMC will triple investment in US plan
* Crude oil (US WTI benchmark) falls to one-year low:
US GDP Growth On Track To Slow In Q4 As Recession Risk Rises
The rebound in US economic activity is expected to slow in the fourth quarter, according to the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. The nowcast offers a bright note amid swirling recession forecasts, but business-cycle indicators suggest that the Q4 GDP estimate will fade as new economic report are published in the weeks ahead.
Macro Briefing: 6 December 2022
* Ukraine drones extend attacks into Russia
* Global economic activity deepened during November, PMI survey data reports
* US factory orders rise more than forecast in October
* Global manufacturing operations shifting away from China
* Oil prices rise as new cap starts on the price of Russian crude
* Renewables will be biggest source of electricity generation by 2025, IEA says
* CEO optimism is waning on the outlook for 2023
* US Services PMI: “Business activity contraction gains pace” in November, but…
* ISM US Services Index reports stronger growth in November:
Emerging Markets Stocks Top Last Week’s Rebound For Risk Assets
Stocks in emerging markets extended their recent recovery and posted the strongest gain in a wide-ranging bounce for the major asset classes for the trading week through Friday, Dec. 2, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 5 December 2022
* Stronger-than-expected jobs report keeps pressure on Fed to extend tight policy
* China’s services activity in November declines at steepest level since May
* US manufacturing orders in China have dropped 40 percent
* Eurozone retail sales in October post biggest monthly decline so far in 2022
* OPEC maintains oil-supply cuts as West tightens sanctions on Russian oil
* BP bets big on hydrogen as fuel of the future
* Developing nations facing a debt crisis in coming months
* Global food prices continued falling in November
* No actively run mutual funds consistently beat their benchmark, study finds
* US payrolls beat forecasts and post solid gain for November:
