With just three weeks left to the year, nearly all corners of global markets are on track to post gains for 2023, based on a set of index ETFs. The US stock market is still leading the field by a wide margin. Meanwhile, commodities are the downside outlier.
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Macro Briefing: 11 December 2023
* No change in rates expected for Wednesday’s Fed meeting, but…
* Central bank’s comments on possible future actions will be in focus
* OPEC losing control of oil market as US production offsets cuts
* China’s deflation is deepening as consumer prices fall at fastest rate in 3 years
* FDA approves gene-editing therapy for sickle cell disease
* US Consumer Sentiment Index rebounds in Dec, reversing recent declines:
Book Bits: 9 December 2023
● Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger (revised ed.)
Edited by Peter D. Kaufman
Summary via publisher (Stripe Press)
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up,” Charlie Munger advises in Poor Charlie’s Almanack. Originally published in 2005, this compilation of 11 talks by the legendary Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman has become a touchstone for a generation of investors and entrepreneurs. Delivered with Munger’s characteristic rhetorical flair, Poor Charlie’s Almanack draws on his encyclopedic knowledge of business, finance, history, philosophy, physics, and ethics to introduce the latticework of mental models that underpin his rational and rigorous approach to life, learning, and decision-making. It is an essential volume for any reader seeking to go to bed a little wiser than when they woke up. This abridged edition features a new foreword by Stripe cofounder and president John Collison.
Soft Landing Is Still Plausible For US, Q4 GDP Nowcasts Suggest
US economic growth remains on track to slow in the fourth quarter, but today’s revised analysis still supports a “soft landing” outlook that will keep output strong enough sidestep an NBER-defined recession.
Macro Briefing: 8 December 2023
* Biden set to veto anti-electric-vehicle bill
* Crude oil prices on track for seventh straight weekly decline
* 2023 is least affordable year for homebuying on record–2024 may be better
* Apple plans to make 1/4 of iPhones in India within several years
* Google rolls out first phase of Gemini, its AI project
* US jobless claims edge up, but remain low by historical standards:
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Is The US Stock Market Set To Break Out Of Its Trading Range?
For much of the past month and a half the S&P 500 Index has rallied, recovering all of the lost ground from the summer/fall correction. The market is currently trading at just below its July high. A decisive rise above this level would strengthen the view that US equities are poised to break free of the trading range that’s prevailed for much of the past two years.
Macro Briefing: 7 December 2023
* House votes to bar Biden emission regulations favoring electric vehicles
* US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.1%–lowest since early September
* Germany stock market rises to record high
* Moody’s downgrades outlook for 8 Chinese banks
* China says exports rise for first time in seven months
* US private sector jobs rose less than expected in November: ADP
Despite US Resilience, Recessionistas Still Expect Trouble
The US was supposed to be in recession by now, according to numerous forecasts from early in 2023. But the bearish forecasts have fallen flat as output has remained positive. In fact, GDP surged in the third quarter, dealing a body blow to expectations that a downturn was imminent. But rather than admit defeat, the recession forecasters have simply moved forward the expected tipping point.
Macro Briefing: 6 December 2023
* More oil output cuts possible for OPEC+, says Russia
* US will work with other nations to accelerate nuclear fusion viable energy source
* Water consumption in tech is surging to support growing AI use
* Despite market rallies, tax-efficient ETFs set for minimal distributions for 2023
* Global Composite PMI, a GDP proxy, indicates weak growth in November
* US ISM Services Index picks up in November, indicates moderate growth
* US job openings fall in October to lowest level since March 2021:
US Large-Cap Stocks Remain 2023’s Equity Factor Leader
In a mixed year for equity risk factors, several flavors of large-cap shares stand out as this year’s winners, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Dec. 4). Small-cap stocks are on track to trail by a wide margin in relative terms for the calendar year, but the recent rally in this corner is inspiring new forecasts that this slice of equity risk premium is poised to outperform in the new year.