US jobless claims rose last week, but the number of new filings for unemployment benefits remains low relative to history. The 4-week average, which reduces some of the week-to-week noise, continues to trend lower. “For the moment, the labor market looks steady as a rock and the economy appears to have missed falling headlong over the cliff into the depths of recession,” says Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
Momentum, Large-Cap Growth Factors Still Leading This Year
Betting against momentum and large-cap growth continues to be a losing proposition, at least in relative terms, for positioning US equity portfolios in 2024, based on a set of factor ETFs. These risk premia have dominated for much of the year and it’s not obvious that the trend is set to change, based on trading through Oct. 2.
Macro Briefing: 3 October 2024
Hiring at US companies rebounded in September, according to the ADP Employment Report. “Job creation showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown,” notes ADP Research. “Only one sector, information, lost jobs. Manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.”
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 02 October 2024
The long-term performance forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to edge lower in September. Today’s revised estimate marks the third straight month of decline for GMI, an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 October 2024
Israel plans a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack from Iran that threatens to shift the Middle East to a regionwide war. “A full-scale war, or even a more limited one, could be devastating for Lebanon, Israel, and the region,” says Jonathan Panikoff, the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Major Asset Classes | September 2024 | Performance Review
Emerging-markets stocks surged in September, delivering the lead performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs. Real estate shares were also strong performers last month, extending recent strength for these stocks. Commodities, once again, were the downside outlier.
Macro Briefing: 1 October 2024
Israel launches ground war into Lebanon. The incursion is a “limited, localized and targeted ground raids” against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said in a statement.
Dockworkers at ports from Maine to Gulf coast go on strike. AP reports: “Supply chain experts say consumers won’t see an immediate impact from the strike because most retailers stocked up on goods, moving ahead shipments of holiday gift items. But if it goes more than a few weeks, a work stoppage would significantly snarl the nation’s supply chain, potentially leading to higher prices and delays in goods reaching households and businesses.”
The US stock market rose on Monday, setting a new record closing price, based on the S&P 500 Index: “Everything is about the growth side of the economy, and everything is about the consumer,” says Stuart Kaiser, Citi head of US equity trading strategy. “Any data that suggests consumer spending is holding in and you’re not seeing the weakness that people are worried that the Fed is worried about, I think that’s all going to be positive for equity markets.”
Recent Data Still Point To Solid US Growth For Q3
The resonance of summer warnings that the US economy is on the precipice of recession continue to fade from the perspective of the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. The latest run of numbers continues to highlight encouraging nowcasts for the government’s initial Q3 report, scheduled for release on Oct. 30.
Macro Briefing: 30 September 2024
US consumer spending continued to rise in August, driven by services spending. “The resilience of consumer spending and the stronger foundations strengthen our conviction that the near-term outlook for the economy remains bright,” says Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics.
Book Bits: 28 September 2024
● All the Presidents’ Money: How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money
Megan Gorman
Interview with author via The Stacking Benjamins Show
Wealth historian Megan Gorman stops by the basement and drops intriguing nuggets on how U.S. presidents like FDR and Ulysses S. Grant navigated their finances. There are many lessons you can learn from these iconic figures. Later, our headline conversation meanders through ERISA’s 50-year legacy and political party impacts on investments, as preparations unfold for an RV trip to Oregon. The adventure continues with exotic travel stories, packing tips, and reflections on Dave Barry’s life lessons. Listener engagement and very-important debates, including daylight savings time, ensure there’s never a dull moment! Join the lively trio of Joe, OG, and Doug as they blend retirement strategies with a dash of humor, exploring everything from coffee mugs to memes.