Monthly Archives: April 2022

Macro Briefing: 25 April 2022

* Macron reelected as France’s president, defeating far-right candidate
* US officials, after visiting Ukraine, pledge more military support
* Covid-19 outbreak continues to roil China
* Rising mortgage rates could create housing shortage, advises economist
* Bond market’s pricing in faster rise in inflationary pressures for years ahead
* US labor market hints at possible easing of inflation pressure
* A new energy crisis is in full swing
* German economic sentiment stabilizes in April, posting slightly higher reading
* A recession in Europe has started, according to Sentix survey data in April:

Book Bits: 23 April 2022

Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad,
and How to Fix It

Steve Forbes, et al.
Summary via publisher (Encounter Books)
Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad, and How to Fix It explains what’s behind the worst inflationary storm in more than forty years—one that is dominating the headlines and shaking Americans by their pocketbooks. The cost-of-living explosion since the COVID pandemic has raised alarms about a possible return of a 1970’s-style “Great Inflation.” Some observers even fear a descent into the kind of raging hyperinflation that has torn apart so many nations. Is this true? If so, how should we prepare for the future?

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Macro Briefing: 22 April 2022

* Powell says 1/2 percent rate hike in May is “on the table”
* Eurozone growth accelerates in April, PMI survey data shows
* Will French presidential election on Sunday roil US-led policy on Ukraine?
* Florida passes bill to end Disney’s special self-governing status
* China’s zero-covid strategy triggers capital flight from country’s financial markets
* Philly Fed Mfg Index eased in April but continues to reflect growth
* Jobless claims in US continue to hold near 50-year low
* US Leading Economic Index points to economic growth through 2022:

Macro Briefing: 21 April 2022

* Is a cornered Russia more dangerous than ever?
* Food crisis threatens “human catastrophe”, warns World Bank president
* Rate hikes could trigger recession, says SF Fed head Mary Daly
* Will Fed’s Powell today offer new clues for 50-bps rate hike in May?
* Fed’s Beige Book: US economy shows moderate growth amid high inflation
* The rise in bond yields is starting to attract bargain hunters
* US 10-year yield above equivalent in China for first time in over a decade
* Will rising mortgage rates slow red-hot housing market?
* Existing home sales in US fell for a second month in March
* US home prices rose to a new record in March despite softer sales
* US Treasury market’s inflation forecast remains well below actual inflation:

Macro Briefing: 20 April 2022

* Will Russia’s battle for Ukraine’s Donbas region decide the war?
* IMF cuts growth outlook for global economy due to Ukraine war
* China will continue strengthening strategic ties with Russia, says diplomat
* China risks self-inflicted recession with aggressive battle to eradicate Omicron
* Shanghai starts to ease virus controls that shut down China’s biggest city
* Signs of demand destruction for commodities are starting to emerge
* Companies acquired in LBO deals at risk with rising interest rates
* The Fed’s hawkish pivot looks set to cool the housing market
* US housing starts rose more than than forecast in March:

Macro Briefing: 19 April 2022

* Russia launches new military offensive in eastern Ukraine
* US real Treasury yields close to turning positive for first time in two years
* War-driven food insecurity is center stage at global finance meeting
* US equities will grind higher as inflation peaks, predicts analyst
* Investors are wary that China economic support will limit Covid-related damage
* Confidence among US homebuilders falls to seven-month low in April
* Should Fed raise interest rate 3/4 point? Yes, says St. Louis Fed’s Bullard
* US 10-year Treasury yield continues rising, at highest rate since Dec. 2018: