Daily Archives: Feb 2, 2024 at 07:18 am EST

Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 February 2024

The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return, based on the average for three models (defined below). GMI is a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies. Today’s revised performance estimate marks another fractionally lower forecast vs. the previous month’s outlook.

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Macro Briefing: 2 February 2024

* Global manufacturing sentiment improves in January
* Bumper earnings from big tech firms cheer markets in early Friday trading
* IMF predicts housing demand in China to drop 50% over next decade
* US jobless claims, although still low, increase to 11-week high
* Job cuts in US jump to 10-month high in January
* Construction spending in US beats expectations by wide margin
* ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 15-month high in January:

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