It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist. Yet the forecast still resonates when it comes from a Nobel laureate, even in the wake of the latest upbeat US economic news.
* Fed officials offer cautious outlook on expectations for rate cuts
* China deflation deepens in January–prices fall at fastest rate in 15 years
* US trade deficit narrowed in 2023 by the most since 2009
* CBO projects US federal budget deficit at 6.1% of GDP for 2025 vs 2024’s 5.6%
* US GDP Q1 nowcast via Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model in line with Q4’s increase: