Daily Archives: September 15, 2023

10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate: 15 September 2023

The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher in August, rising further above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. It’s unclear if the mean estimate is wrong or the market’s experiencing an extended run of irrational exuberance. Perhaps it’s a bit of both. In any case, the widening spread in the market yield over the model’s estimate is striking from a historical perspective.

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Macro Briefing: 15 September 2023

* US government still heading for a shutdown at end of September
* United Auto Workers union launches strike against Big Three automakers
* China reports signs of modest but fragile economic recovery in late-summer
* Oil prices rise above $90 a barrel for first time in 2023
* Current 2%-plus real yields for TIPS still look attractive
* 4-week average of US jobless claims falls to lowest level in 7 months
* Wholesale US inflation accelerated in August after historically slow pace
* US retail sales rise more than expected in August:

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