Daily Archives: Jun 29, 2021 at 07:35 am EDT

Estimating Fair Value For The 10-Year Treasury Yield, Part III

In recent weeks I’ve been building models that estimate a theoretical “fair value” for the world’s most important interest rate: the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (see here and here). The goal: combine the results to develop a more robust estimate by using the average. As such, more models are better and so today I introduce a third approach to econometrically approximate the “correct” level of the 10-year rate.

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Macro Briefing: 29 June 2021

* Militias fire rockets at US troops in Syria after airstrikes
* Federal court dismisses antitrust case against Facebook
* Delta variant is spreading, raising risk of potential Covid-19 spikes in the fall
* US demand revival is driving world economic recovery
* Drought in US West will add to upside pressure on food prices
* Considering what could wrong for markets, the economy and more
* Is fragility the new normal for the US stock market?
* 10yr-3mo Treasury yield curve continues to show downside trending bias: