Today’s “fair value” estimate of the US 10-year Treasury yield continues to suggest that the current market rate is unusually lofty and that the spread will soon narrow. Yesterday’s sharp drop in the 10-year yield (triggered by upbeat inflation news for October) suggests that the process of normalizing has started.

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* House passes bill to avert government shutdown
* Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet today in San Francisco
* Odds appear to rise for US soft-landing economic scenario
* China retail sales and industrial output in Oct rise more than expected
* More disinflation pressure expected for housing, expert predicts
* US consumer inflation eased in year-over-year terms through October:

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