On paper, the set-up sounds toxic. An ongoing war on Europe’s eastern border, a new conflict in the Middle East that could turn into a regional battle, and sharply higher interest rates to combat inflation. It doesn’t sound like the conditions that are conducive to robust gains, but year-to-date results for global portfolios suggest otherwise.
Monthly Archives: November 2023
Macro Briefing: 13 November 2023
* US launches more strikes on Iran-linked groups in Syria
* House GOP unveils plan to avoid a government shutdown
* Moody’s cuts US credit outlook to ‘negative’ despite reaffirming AAA rating
* China consumption rebound slowed, business confidence lost momentum in Oct
* US and Indonesia discuss possible deal on electric-vehicle minerals
* Foreclosures surge in risky corner of commercial property market
* Renewable energy firms suffering a rough earnings season
* US Consumer Sentiment Index falls for fourth straight month in November:
Book Bits: 11 November 2023
Rob Copeland
Review via The Daily Beast
In public, Ray Dalio has all the markings of an icon. He built his hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, into the largest in the world; he signed The Giving Pledge; he wrote a book about his principles (title: Principles) that sold millions of copies.
New York Times reporter Rob Copeland is here to shatter the illusion. On Tuesday, Copeland published a new biography, The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates, and the Unraveling of a Wall Street Legend, which draws on interviews with hundreds of people in Dalio’s orbit.
International Stocks On Track To Trail US Equities In 2023
After world shares ex-US enjoyed a rare if unimpressive win over American shares in 2022 — by losing less — the odds don’t look encouraging for a repeat run of outperformance in 2023, based on a set of ETFs through Thursday’s close (Nov. 9).
Macro Briefing: 10 November 2023
* Congress has no plan to avoid a government shutdown on Nov. 17
* Powell says Fed ‘not confident’ it has done enough to tame inflation
* Global trade data suggests worst of downturn has passed
* Int’l diversification is worth a new look after a strong run for US markets
* China’s ICBC, world’s biggest bank, hit by cyberware attack
* US jobless claims tick down, holding near multi-decade low:
Still Looking For A Clear Risk-Off Signal In Markets
A review of market trends in early September suggested that the recent correction didn’t trigger a clear risk-off signal. Two months later, not much has changed, based on several ETF pairs that are proxies for various aspects of market sentiment via prices through yesterday’s close (Nov. 8). Markets are churning as various threats raise questions about the path ahead, but for the moment it’s still not obvious that investors are throwing in the towel on risk assets.
Macro Briefing: 9 November 2023
* US airstrike on site in Syria
* US and China finance ministers lay groundwork for Biden-Xi meeting
* China consumer prices fell in October, highlighting risk of deflation
* Will falling Treasury yields keep the Fed hawkish?
* US mortgage rates post biggest one-week drop in over a year
* US crude oil price continues to fall, trading at lowest since July:
US Q4 GDP Growth Still Appears Set For Substantial Slowdown
The red-hot economic growth in the third quarter remains on track to decelerate sharply in the final three months of the year, based on the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 8 November 2023
* Banks report tighter lending standards
* IMF raises China GDP forecast for 2023 to +5.4%
* 20% of US offices vacant and WeWork bankruptcy won’t help
* If declining inflation continues, slide will be fastest in a century: Fed’s Goolsbee
* Why did so many economists fail to anticipate the recent disinflation?
* US crude oil prices fall below $78 a barrel–lowest since July
* US trade deficit deepened for first time in 3 months in September
* US credit card balances surged year over year in Q3:
US Economic Slowdown Watch: 07 November 2023
The third-quarter GDP report surprised most economists with a blow-out 4.9% gain. Is a downside reversal brewing for Q4?